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      Prospects Seen Dim for Full New Trade Round.  
      News posted on November 25, 1999

      GENEVA - World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Mike Moore headed for Seattle on Wednesday hoping to marshal ministers meeting there next week into agreeing on launching a new trade round.

      But although the former New Zealand prime minister exuded optimism despite the failure of negotiators in Geneva to prepare solid ground for the gathering, diplomats and trade analysts in Geneva were downbeat on the likely outcome.

      "It's going to be an almighty task, and I wouldn't put the chances at more than 40-60 at best that we will get anything really substantive at the Ministerial," said one envoy due to take part in the meeting.

      Developing countries, which form the vast bulk of the WTO membership, are furious that richer countries seem unready to take their problems with earlier trade accords into account.

      There were strong indications of mounting bitterness between the United States and the European Union, the two top global trade powers whose cooperation will be vital for any major achievement in Seattle.

      "It's outrageous how the Americans have abused their position as host of the meeting to push their own agenda," said a European diplomat, recalling that Singapore took a neutral stance when it staged the first WTO Ministerial in 1996.

      Japanese envoys, lined up with the EU in the critical spat over agriculture's role in a new round, voiced similar views.

      U.S. ACCUSES EU OF END-GAME TACTICS

      But U.S. officials denied any such behavior, and suggested the EU was engaged in end-game tactics to try to get its own way over the agenda for a new set of trade liberalization talks, expected to be dubbed "the Millennium Round."

      "Right now, the Europeans are not looking good," said one. "They had a deal in their hands here and then walked away."

      An ever-ebullient Moore, hardened to the cut-and-thrust of domestic political battling at home, told a news conference after negotiators from the 135 WTO member countries passed the buck to the ministers: "I think it will be done.

      "Seattle will not fail," he added categorically.

      His optimism was echoed by the meeting's sponsors, with U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky saying she was confident a new global trade round would be launched.

      "Everyone knows that failure is not an option," she told a news conference in Washington.

      But pressed on what would be done in the four days available from Nov. 30 to Dec. 3, Moore was less direct.

      "How can we fail when we represent 135 sovereign governments?" He asked. "What they agree together is an achievement. I think we will get a number of advances that will benefit people everywhere."

      Moore, citing a European report predicting a huge boost to the global economy from a wide-ranging round covering industrial goods and services as well as agriculture, said too much was at stake for the ministers to leave Seattle with nothing.

      BRIDGING GAPS HUGE TASK

      However, given the extent of differences on many issues which emerged during the three hectic months in which trade envoys in Geneva tried to draft a blueprint for a round, bridging the gaps will clearly be an almighty task.

      The EU -- with Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Norway -- refuses to commit itself to working in a new round for an end to all farm subsidies aimed at boosting production.

      That key demand from the 15-nation Cairns Group of agricultural produce-exporting countries, headed by Australia but including major emerging economies like Argentina and Brazil, is backed firmly by the United States.

      Latin Americans in the group say they will not agree to any wider discussions without such an EU commitment.

      Developing countries in Asia and Africa, particularly the poorest, are highly reluctant to envisage new commitments at all unless they are given more time to put into effect the market openings they accepted in the 1986-93 Uruguay Round.

      Several, alongside Japan, also insist that the United States must agree to revisit that round's anti-dumping accord to tighten rules on when countries can take action against imports they deem to be sold at less than production costs, the present version of which they say Washington is abusing.

      Emerging economies are also determined to resist U.S. calls -- which will be backed in Seattle by mass street demonstrations of U.S. workers -- for talks to start on making observation of "core labor standards" an element in WTO free trading rules.












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